The newly free celebrate by performing 'YMCA' on the streets for the first time
By Bobby James (Email BJ)
I was originally going to use Bahrain in the title of this article but they've already gone out of style after three days like Lou Bega's career. It's looking as though everyday there's a new member of the "What Middle Eastern Country Is Going to Collapse?" game, so many that it's difficult to keep up. The best part about the whole thing is Americans are now hearing about countries that they didn't even know existed, much less knew that their own government has been supporting human rights violations there. Who knew? But the question isn't where these countries are or what types of people live there; the more important question is, how can I gamble on this and who should I put my money on? (I guess that's 2 questions) Here, for your enjoyment and, to a lesser extent, education, is a guide to the collapse of the Middle East!
I was originally going to use Bahrain in the title of this article but they've already gone out of style after three days like Lou Bega's career. It's looking as though everyday there's a new member of the "What Middle Eastern Country Is Going to Collapse?" game, so many that it's difficult to keep up. The best part about the whole thing is Americans are now hearing about countries that they didn't even know existed, much less knew that their own government has been supporting human rights violations there. Who knew? But the question isn't where these countries are or what types of people live there; the more important question is, how can I gamble on this and who should I put my money on? (I guess that's 2 questions) Here, for your enjoyment and, to a lesser extent, education, is a guide to the collapse of the Middle East!
Beginning with the protests in Tunisia, governments across the Middle East and Northern Africa have been dropping like tyrannical, women-hating flies. Protest fever spread to Egypt soon after, causing the proverbial boot to kick President Mubarak's ass out the door and into Saudi Arabia (we'll discuss those fun-loving rascals later on). Since then, it has been a domino effect, spreading to virtually every Middle Eastern country except Derkaderkastan, where the government has forced every inhabitant to speak in gibberish so no actual communication can ever happen. It's getting to the point where we'll need a March Madness style bracket to keep track. But have no fear, here are the favorites this upcoming Crumbling Middle East season along with the odds that each will fall to, as Fox News is sure to phrase it, democracy hating, homosexual, Islamic socialists.
Iran: Shooting at Protesters Since 1982
The Islamic Republic of Iran is the Annette Bening of Middle Eastern protests. They've been nominated multiple times but have gotten no prizes yet. But just as the lady who tamed Warren Beatty might take the Oscar this year for the The Kids Are Alright, Iran might find it itself winning for The Imams Aren't Alright. It has been about a year since the attempt of the "Green Movement" where protesters took to the streets under the urging of Mir Hossain Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, two opposition leaders who have been jailed more than Scott Weiland, T.I. and Lil Wayne put together. The protest this year is more of a continuation of last year's display, which proves that their president, Mahmoud Ahmenidijad, was incorrect in saying that the Green revolution's flame had gone out since last year. So far only one person, a student, has been killed in clashes with government security, which is nothing compared to the mass slaughter that's coming from some of these other places. You can read more about Iran's situation in the Mindwafers debate with Rod Pilf and myself, which ended with Pilf hurling a faberge egg at an intern and causing Pilf to have to spend some time away from the site while he cleaned up the highway per state's orders.
WILL HAPPEN: Protests have spread to France, where supporters of the Greens are marching in the streets, causing little Frenchmen on scooters to angrily beep at them. Also, this has been brewing for a long time, as Iran is known as one of the repressive places on Earth, especially towards women.
WON'T HAPPEN: One death isn't enough to cause a national uproar. Plus, the United States is so distracted by events in Egypt and Libya that they forgot to spew their usual hate towards Iran. It's too bad because this would actually be an appropriate time for Bill O'Reilly to spit some venom and gather some American support.
ODDS: 20 TO 1
WILL HAPPEN: Protests have spread to France, where supporters of the Greens are marching in the streets, causing little Frenchmen on scooters to angrily beep at them. Also, this has been brewing for a long time, as Iran is known as one of the repressive places on Earth, especially towards women.
WON'T HAPPEN: One death isn't enough to cause a national uproar. Plus, the United States is so distracted by events in Egypt and Libya that they forgot to spew their usual hate towards Iran. It's too bad because this would actually be an appropriate time for Bill O'Reilly to spit some venom and gather some American support.
ODDS: 20 TO 1
Bahrain: Formerly Known as the Place Michael Jackson Lived
The tiny little island Bahrain, the smallest country in the Middle East, is getting some big publicity as of late. The last time they were in the news was when the King of Pop decided to move there. I guess it's a lot better being a millionaire, world-beloved singer in Bahrain than a Shiite Muslim. The Shiites, of Iraq death squad fame, are accusing the Sunni Bahrain monarchy of discriminating against their people for years and were emboldened by the events in Egypt. The King has since given in to some demands, releasing about a hundred political prisoners while promising elections...someday anyway. Never ones to be easily satisfied, the Shiites continued to demand that the King step down. Since then, the King flew to Saudi Arabia, presumably to ask the Saudis how they're so good at keeping people in line. The Saudis' reply? Public executions, works everytime. Oh, and by "The King of Bahrain" I don't mean Michael Jackson...Michael Jackson is dead. I just don't feel like looking up the King's name.
WILL HAPPEN: The Shiite-Sunni conflict is no joke, as witnessed in Iraq. Those guys are serious and have been going at it for 1500 years. Also, Iran is likely to offer the Bahrain protesters lots of support since it's the only Shiite dominated country in the region and would love to spread their influence. And with Iraq now Shiite dominated, thanks to that fantastic war, the US might have unwillingly made this protest movement stronger, which we're sure to take credit for in the end.
WON'T HAPPEN: US officials have so far made no statement on Bahrain, probably because they also didn't know the country existed. The events in Bahrain have been the Joe Budden of Middle Eastern protests: lots of hype but never really caught on with the public. You have to wonder what a Michael Jackson soundbite would have done for the protest movement.
ODDS: 10 TO 1
WILL HAPPEN: The Shiite-Sunni conflict is no joke, as witnessed in Iraq. Those guys are serious and have been going at it for 1500 years. Also, Iran is likely to offer the Bahrain protesters lots of support since it's the only Shiite dominated country in the region and would love to spread their influence. And with Iraq now Shiite dominated, thanks to that fantastic war, the US might have unwillingly made this protest movement stronger, which we're sure to take credit for in the end.
WON'T HAPPEN: US officials have so far made no statement on Bahrain, probably because they also didn't know the country existed. The events in Bahrain have been the Joe Budden of Middle Eastern protests: lots of hype but never really caught on with the public. You have to wonder what a Michael Jackson soundbite would have done for the protest movement.
ODDS: 10 TO 1
Libya: The New Guy on the Head Chopping Block
Remember a few years ago when the liberal media was going kind of gaga about Moammar Ghadafi when he made a visit here for a UN convention? He insisted on pitching a tent, but was denied, and we all thought that was so cool. He was even a guest on Larry King! Well, all of us bleeding heart liberals are taking that back now because, even though Ghadafi kind of looks like Carlos Santana, remember that he's a dictator, not a guitar God who played at Woodstock on tons of acid. Again, Libyans were influenced by nearby Egypt and decided to put an end to Ghadafi's authoritarian bullshit. Ten years ago, we would have already been hearing about how bad Ghadafi is, especially since Libya was blamed for taking down Pan Am Flight 103 in 1981, and was added to the list of terrorist sponsoring states. But in recent years, Ghadafi had a change of heart when he decided that he was going to fight with us, not against us, especially when he found out that we would send him over some money to help him fight. In the years after, Ghadafi let us torture our prisoners on his soil as long as we looked the other way when he tortured his own people. Kind of like two massage therapists sharing the same workspace, but with waterboarding. Because of that, we haven't heard much from the US government, except a weak soundbite of Hillary Clinton calling the killing "irresponsible" as if Ghadafi got behind the wheel after a few happy hour margaritas at Applebees. So far, 1000 Libyans are dead as Ghadafi has now ordered his security forces to mow down anyone holding up a sign, even if they're just asking for change (the monetary kind).
WILL HAPPEN: The crisis has escalated to a degree unseen even in Egypt. With this many killed and media coverage constant, it seems near impossible that this will end with Ghadafi still in control. They came out of nowhere, but I think Libya will be the smart bet to crumble next.
WON'T HAPPEN: The US has a lot invested in Libya, a country that's a major exporter of oil. In fact, oil prices have skyrocketed over the past couple of days, sending the US stock market into a seizure. I'm not sure how they would get out of it unscathed but don't be surprised if we see some major spin on this issue with the real purpose being to stabilize the markets. Since we don't really have much influence or a major oppositional partner, I'm willing to bet Obama and co. are trying to find a way to get out of this situation with either 1) Us forgetting about it 2) Ghadafi conceding to demands but staying in charge 3) Finding someone who will do our corporate bidding after Ghadafi is gone. I'm leaning toward option 3 as the most realistic.
ODDS: 2 TO 1
UPDATE: US officials announced that they would be placing sanctions on Ghadafi. This essentially means nothing when you're mowing down your own people in the streets. Way to grow some balls America!
WILL HAPPEN: The crisis has escalated to a degree unseen even in Egypt. With this many killed and media coverage constant, it seems near impossible that this will end with Ghadafi still in control. They came out of nowhere, but I think Libya will be the smart bet to crumble next.
WON'T HAPPEN: The US has a lot invested in Libya, a country that's a major exporter of oil. In fact, oil prices have skyrocketed over the past couple of days, sending the US stock market into a seizure. I'm not sure how they would get out of it unscathed but don't be surprised if we see some major spin on this issue with the real purpose being to stabilize the markets. Since we don't really have much influence or a major oppositional partner, I'm willing to bet Obama and co. are trying to find a way to get out of this situation with either 1) Us forgetting about it 2) Ghadafi conceding to demands but staying in charge 3) Finding someone who will do our corporate bidding after Ghadafi is gone. I'm leaning toward option 3 as the most realistic.
ODDS: 2 TO 1
UPDATE: US officials announced that they would be placing sanctions on Ghadafi. This essentially means nothing when you're mowing down your own people in the streets. Way to grow some balls America!
Morocco/Jordan: The Meh Rebellion
One of the more low-key protest movements have been occurring in Jordan and Morocco, both monarchies who are seen as stable countries in a very unstable region. The only problem is that 'stable' also means no freedom, which is the case here, especially in the Western Sahara region of Morocco, which has been fighting for independence for over 20 years. Like many beautiful tourist locations, Morocco is a vicious facade where rich Europeans sip drinks by the beach while the locals are reduced to near slave labor. In response to the protests, the kings of both countries have agreed to shuffle around their parliaments. Of course this means they'll just replace them with a new load of cronies and start the process all over again.
WILL HAPPEN: These conflicts have brewing for some time and either Jordan or Morocco could be the come from behind winner. Jordan host a slew of bitter Palestinian refugees who are used as pawns in the 'who loves Palestine more' game but are sick of their poor treatment. And you know how Palestinians like to tussle.
WONT HAPPEN: So far, the Middle Eastern monarchies have been faring better than their pseudo-democratic brethren. Kings have more elasticity in what they can do because...they're fucking kings. And we all know that it's good to be the king...unless, of course, you're overthrown and your head is skewered like a street kebab.
ODDS: 30 TO 1
WILL HAPPEN: These conflicts have brewing for some time and either Jordan or Morocco could be the come from behind winner. Jordan host a slew of bitter Palestinian refugees who are used as pawns in the 'who loves Palestine more' game but are sick of their poor treatment. And you know how Palestinians like to tussle.
WONT HAPPEN: So far, the Middle Eastern monarchies have been faring better than their pseudo-democratic brethren. Kings have more elasticity in what they can do because...they're fucking kings. And we all know that it's good to be the king...unless, of course, you're overthrown and your head is skewered like a street kebab.
ODDS: 30 TO 1
Yemen: Welcome al qaida!
The little impoverished country of Yemen, tucked inside Saudi's asshole, has had problems for years. It's the poorest country in the Middle East, which is saying a lot and, as a result, its citizens are a wee bit angry. Over the years it has become a breeding ground for future suicide bombers to achieve their dreams of defeating the great Satan (are you supposed to capitalize Satan?). In the meantime, the US has been sending our fancy remote-controlled war planes, also known as drones, over to the land of ye'men to blow up whatever we can. Usually these are civilians. Well, it turns out they weren't too happy about it, especially after Wikileaks released a cable indicating that President Ali Abdullah Saleh was taking the blame for the US bombings to hide the sketchiness. Things have gotten increasingly out of control in recent days, first causing Saleh to announce that he will not run in next year's elections. The people replied, "Next year?" demanding that he leave right the fuck now. In recent days, Yemeni lawmakers are quitting in droves, hoping not to associated with that whole dictator thing. The endpoint in all of this could be scary, as Yemen actually does have a large al qaida presence who could conceivably take control. Not that that's any reason to keep Saleh in charge, who is a ruthless tyrant who has spent the last 33 years enriching himself at the expense of his own country. They'll have to play the game of which is worse.
IT WILL HAPPEN: This one seems like it might go down. The rule goes that the more poor a country is, the angrier its people, and Yemen is very fucking poor. Add to that the sympathies toward al qaida and other hardline Islamist groups and you have a recipe for a fun time. It might suck for us but that's what you get for supporting a jerkoff for three decades. Now sit back and watch the show.
IT WON'T HAPPEN: I can imagine that the Obama administration is going to fight this one tooth and nail. With so much interest in other countries on this list, they can afford to ignore Yemen for awhile until it gets to Libya-like levels. But 33 years is a long time to be held down and now that the people have seen a way out, I don't see how they can just go back to their former, miserable living...unless, of course, they're forced to, which we might enable to happen.
ODDS: 3 TO 1
IT WILL HAPPEN: This one seems like it might go down. The rule goes that the more poor a country is, the angrier its people, and Yemen is very fucking poor. Add to that the sympathies toward al qaida and other hardline Islamist groups and you have a recipe for a fun time. It might suck for us but that's what you get for supporting a jerkoff for three decades. Now sit back and watch the show.
IT WON'T HAPPEN: I can imagine that the Obama administration is going to fight this one tooth and nail. With so much interest in other countries on this list, they can afford to ignore Yemen for awhile until it gets to Libya-like levels. But 33 years is a long time to be held down and now that the people have seen a way out, I don't see how they can just go back to their former, miserable living...unless, of course, they're forced to, which we might enable to happen.
ODDS: 3 TO 1
Saudi Arabia: The Smartest Crooks in the Game
The most surprising news through all of these events is that there were actually protests going on in Saudi Arabia, the kings of repression. To even utter a negative word toward the royal family usually isn't even considered a real concept, like a flying baboon. But the force of people wanting freedom has prompted some brave few to speak out...and get immediately crushed. The truth is, at this point, no one can fuck with Saudi. They're heavily supported by the US, are the number 1 exporter of oil in the world and, honestly, really good at dictating. If dictating were a sport, Saudi would win the Super Bowl, World Series, Wimbledon, The Grammys, The Oscars, and the Kentucky Derby. They're simply unfuckwithable. And their response to the little protest they got was brilliant. A few days after the tremors began, the Saudi government (or cartel) announced that they would be giving its citizens low interest home loans, unemployment insurance, and debt forgiveness. Sound familiar? It's the ol' American bait and switch: make the people think they're getting something, while you keep getting to run your little schemes. I wonder if they have American Idol in Saudi?
IT WILL HAPPEN: Not a snowballs chance in Saudi Arabia.
IT WON'T HAPPEN: Yup, it ain't happening. Sorry Saudis, but you're going to have to suffer a little longer.
ODDS: MILLION TO 1
Little known fact: The US-Saudi partnership began under Franklin Delano Roosevelt after the King of Saud gave FDR a wheelchair. They bonded because the king was also handicapped. Some liberal huh?
keywords: saudi arabia, libya, middle east protests, egypt, bahrain, FDR, yemen, morocco, jordan, iran, world news, politics
IT WILL HAPPEN: Not a snowballs chance in Saudi Arabia.
IT WON'T HAPPEN: Yup, it ain't happening. Sorry Saudis, but you're going to have to suffer a little longer.
ODDS: MILLION TO 1
Little known fact: The US-Saudi partnership began under Franklin Delano Roosevelt after the King of Saud gave FDR a wheelchair. They bonded because the king was also handicapped. Some liberal huh?
keywords: saudi arabia, libya, middle east protests, egypt, bahrain, FDR, yemen, morocco, jordan, iran, world news, politics
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